Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let's get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.
The "Matchups Map" provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks of the season, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2022 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Russell Wilson, Broncos (vs. Raiders). He's a wider-variance Week 1 positional play, but Wilson's matchup presents an appealing high-end projection for managers in two-quarterback or superflex leagues. The Raiders were the NFL's third-worst defense against QBs in 2022, and while first-rounder Tyree Wilson should boost their pass rush, let's not forget he's a rookie adapting to the game's highest competitive level, in addition to being only 10 months removed from foot surgery. Russell Wilson is coming off a massively disappointing 2022 and will likely be without one of his top receivers in Jerry Jeudy (hamstring), but coach Sean Payton's arrival could help rejuvenate the quarterback, while Marvin Mims Jr.'s addition gives the team a plenty adequate fallback option. Wilson managed a season-best 27.48 fantasy points in these teams' Week 4 meeting last season, and in the other (in Week 11) he had a season-best 77.4% completion rate. And while he scored a mediocre 10.68 fantasy points in that second meeting, that total might've looked better had wide receiver Kendall Hinton not been forced out of bounds on a 33-yard, near-touchdown pass in the second quarter.
Others to like: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (at Colts); Geno Smith, Seahawks (vs. Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Aaron Rodgers, Jets (vs. Bills). Sorry to burst your bubble, Jets fans, but Rodgers' team debut might not go as smoothly as hoped. Sure, he has excelled historically in prime-time games, averaging 19.2 fantasy points in them over the past five seasons, but as his overall performance declined in 2022, so did his numbers at night, averaging only 13.7 in his six prime-time contests. More importantly, the Bills represent one of the tougher matchups on Rodgers' schedule, as they were seventh best against QBs in 2022. The Jets, incidentally, haven't gotten more than 13 fantasy points combined from their quarterbacks in a game against the Bills since Week 9 of the 2017 season, and while their personnel certainly had a lot to do with that, it's worth pointing out that 24 of the other 31 teams managed to exceed that number against this defense during that span.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens (vs. Texans). There was no more favorable matchup for an opposing running back last season than the Texans, who granted the position better than 2.5 fantasy points over the next-most favorable matchup. The arrivals of new head coach DeMeco Ryans, formerly the 49ers' defensive coordinator, and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins should help improve the team's prospects, but there's still a large gap to close before this defense can be characterized as quality. As is, the unit's performance against the Dolphins in its second preseason game hinted we should see more of the same in 2023. That's advantageous for Dobbins, who should be a significant factor for a team that's the biggest favorite on the board in Week 1. Even with only 12 to 15 carries, he stands an excellent chance at both 100 yards rushing and, by extension, a double-digit PPR fantasy output.
Others to like: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (vs. Rams); Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders (vs. Cardinals).
Matchup to avoid: Najee Harris, Steelers (vs. 49ers). He's a tough player to bench as the 11th RB off the board in average ESPN leagues, but this might well be the toughest matchup on his entire 2023 schedule. The 49ers were the league's best defense against running backs last season, holding 15 of the 17 starters they faced beneath their fantasy scoring averages (Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey were the two exceptions, and they barely exceeded theirs). Even with the 49ers' preseason struggles defending the run, they still boast one of the game's best defensive lines. Harris, meanwhile, might not see quite as many hefty snap counts as he did during his first two NFL seasons, especially not with the emergence of Jaylen Warren.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jahan Dotson, Commanders (vs. Cardinals). Losing Byron Murphy Jr. to free agency took the Cardinals' secondary several steps backward in terms of talent, to the point that it should now be regarded a plus matchup for opposing wide receivers. Third-year cornerback Marco Wilson remains, but behind him there's not much in the way of depth, with Antonio Hamilton Sr., Christian Matthew, Kei'Trel Clark, Starling Thomas V and Kris Boyd rounding out the position. Dotson, meanwhile, could be in for a huge opening-week role, especially with Terry McLaurin's (turf toe) status uncertain and the veteran likely to be at less than 100% even if active. Expect a hefty number of targets and prospective WR2 fantasy production.
Others to like: Calvin Ridley, Jaguars (at Colts); Mike Evans, Buccaneers (at Vikings).
Matchup to avoid: Gabe Davis, Bills (at Jets). The Jets have one of the best -- if not the best -- cornerback units in the league, led by Sauce Gardner, whom Next Gen Stats graded with the second-best estimated points added on targets (minus-28.8) at the position last season. But that's not all, as D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II also graded well above average, so this is as much of a headache for the Bills' entire receiving crew as it is for their No. 1 target, Stefon Diggs, alone. Diggs' otherworldly talent makes him nearly impossible to bench in fantasy -- he'll get his seven to eight targets, just like he averaged in these teams' two meetings in 2022 (7.5) -- but it's a situational receiver like Davis who is a flat-out "no" facing this matchup. Davis was generally a deep threat only in the two meetings last season, totaling just 11.4 PPR fantasy points on nine targets.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Tyler Higbee, Rams (at Seahawks). The Seahawks were the worst defense in the league at containing tight ends last season. Of the 15 times a TE scored at least 25 fantasy points in 2022, the Seahawks allowed three of them. Bringing linebacker Bobby Wagner back via free agency while having a healthy Jamal Adams should help in that department, but this remains a plus matchup for TEs. Higbee, meanwhile, could benefit from a boost in targets with Cooper Kupp (hamstring) ruled out for this one.
Matchup to avoid: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans (at Saints). The Saints, by comparison, were the league's toughest defense against opposing TEs last season, as well as one of only three teams that didn't allow an individual TE to score as many as 15 points in a game (Cowboys and Eagles were the others). That's good news, considering most of the team's personnel returns, at least among linebackers and defensive backs. Okonkwo probably won't be a top target-getter among tight ends -- he's generally regarded as a second-tier positional option -- and this is projected to be one of the lower-scoring games of Week 1.